Tadalifil will be very hard to get. It was produced in the same government plant as the fentanyl and the guy shipped it everywhere. The products made there will be monitored very closely.
Viagra will be easy to get.
It will be hard for the tiny ugl's to be able to get...Like anasci said, the licensed companies won't have any issue. Just for example there, Cialis guy A, will sell more to Licensed guy B (regardless of China, India, Europe location) and Licensed guy B will move it on from there.
I've spoken to a few old school China sources (which are the only reason for the rest of these would-be China sources that say they own raw factories)...Everyone of them said this will not effect them. This GSP licensing isn't going to work for these make-shift sources anymore.
I'm not going to throw any names out there as examples but if you think your China source is legit, most likely they're not (not directed at you jjb1, just a general statement)...Like I've said countless times in the past, there are only a few sources over all that were providing raws to the rest of the China sources that pass themselves off as factory owners. Those ones that have been passing themselves off are going to be the ones closing doors! There's more that goes on behind the scenes in this game then most will ever see, including the sponsors on these boards that think they know
The only thing the laws will do is make the end user cry...No more bating sources into selling dirt cheap, trying to undercut each other...It will weed out the homebrewer trying to pass themselves as a legit provider. The guys from the early to mid 2000's will be back in full swing. Like it should be! It will get back to what it use to be with if you want to source in the US, then you are going to be remailing from someone that actually is producing their shit correctly overseas...This everyone having access to grab a pack of raws and become a source has gotten way out of hand the past handful of years!
BUT this is all pre-panic...This has come up a few times over the years and no one noticed or cared because there weren't so many homebrewers to push the panic button then. The question would be is China going to give up the market to India or Europe because some chest thumping by the US...It never worked in the past! It would be easier for them to ban Fentanyl then give the entire market up. When IP himself told me what he paid in taxes per year it made me shit...The Chinese are not going to give that type of money away to other countries, no way!!
But I'm going to lock this thread too...No sense in the panic button being pushed until come Jan when we all see first hand what they actually do. Then the member will just continue using whatever sponsors are available! If your source goes under then you know it's time to find a new one, plain and simple.